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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that proposals for a peace deal negotiated with US officials could be finalised in a matter of days. Afterward, U.S. representatives are expected to present the terms to the Russian leadership.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Major Headway, But Key Hurdles Persist

Following extensive talks in Berlin, American negotiators indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Russia and Ukraine had been resolved. Although the outlook appears positive, the path to ending the war is not guaranteed, particularly because the Russian lack of participation from the current dialogue.

Early Tuesday morning, Zelenskyy noted that the US Congress was anticipated to vote on defense assurances and that a finalised set of agreements might be ready “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the United States would hold consultations with Russian representatives, potentially followed by high-level meetings possibly this coming weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“We are counting on five key agreements. Some of them pertain to binding security pledges: formally ratified, that is, approved and approved by the United States Congress,” the president remarked to journalists. He clarified that these assurances would “mirror article 5” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

On Monday, American representatives declined to give precise information regarding the likely contents of the defense package or the consequences if Moscow sought to capture additional territory following an agreement. They did, however, confirm that the United States does not intend to place boots on the ground in Ukraine.

Leaders from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and several additional European countries said in a unified declaration that forces belonging to a “allied coalition” could “help with the regeneration of Ukrainian military capabilities, in protecting Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting maritime security, including through operating inside Ukraine.”

However, they did not suggesting these measures would serve as guarantees matching NATO's Article 5. In any case, there is scant indication that Moscow is near accepting the kind of arrangement being negotiated between Washington and Kyiv.

Kremlin Response and Land Issue

The following day, the Russian government said it had not seen the details of the plans for security assurances. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergey Ryabkov, declared that Russia would never accept forces of NATO member states being stationed in Ukraine “under any circumstances.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators continues to be the issue of land. A key demand involves Kyiv relinquishing the parts of the Donbas region it still holds, while the Ukrainian side wants to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the land dispute. As is known, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” Zelenskyy said after the Berlin talks.

American mediators, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has proposed a compromise solution. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces pull back, but Russian troops would not move forward, with the demilitarised area established as “an open economic area.” Russia has suggested it could use internal security formations rather than the military in such an area, implying it would still seek to control the territory.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ does not mean controlled by Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto will we recognise the Donbas region – its currently occupied areas – as Russian. Categorically,” said Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Possible Scenarios

The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will proceed on the territorial issue. The Ukrainian leader has earlier mentioned that a compromise solution like a free economic zone might be theoretically possible if the Ukrainian people approved it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is likely to be when the plans are put to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has given no sign he is prepared to concede on his military objectives.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will end up with exactly what we are encountering on our flight right now – instability,” commented the president, recording the comments after his plane took off from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will apply sanctions pressure and supply more weapons if they reject the deal. I think, that would be a fair request from us to the Americans,” he concluded.